Prolonged U.S. China tensions and ongoing supply chain restructuring are prompting Korean companies to reconsider their logistics strategies. Experts recommend diversifying logistics hubs to Southeast Asia and India to reduce dependence on traditional U.S. China routes.
The Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) hosted the 2026 Logistics Market Outlook Seminar on December 12 at its Seoul headquarters, highlighting global supply chain changes and next year’s market prospects. Analysts noted that logistics networks are increasingly distributed across multiple countries as the U.S. pursues reshoring and de-risking strategies in critical industries, including semiconductors.
According to UNCTAD, China’s export share to the U.S. fell from 18.0% in 2015 to 14.7% in 2025. Meanwhile, its exports to Southeast Asia and India rose from 12.2% to 16.4% and 2.6% to 3.4%, respectively. U.S. imports from China dropped by 8 percentage points, while Mexico’s share increased to 12.1%, surpassing China as the largest U.S. import source.
Lee Seong-woo, senior research fellow at the Korea Maritime Institute, emphasized: “The U.S. is restructuring its supply chain with a ‘narrower yard, higher fence’ approach. Korean companies must proactively secure logistics hubs aligned with shifts in global import routes, including Mexico and Northeast Asia.”
Sector Outlook for 2026
- Aviation Logistics: Forecast remains clear. High-value cargo such as AI servers, semiconductors, and batteries is expected to maintain steady growth. Eom Seung-jun of LX Pantos highlighted challenges due to cargo aircraft retirement and conversion delays, emphasizing strategies focused on high-profit cargo and e-commerce volumes.
- Land Transportation and Warehousing: Cargo volumes are gradually increasing, driven by e-commerce and logistics outsourcing. However, supply is constrained by driver and workforce shortages.
- Fulfillment Services: Rising demand for order processing, shipping, and returns is fueled by cross-border e-commerce and direct-to-consumer (D2C) brand growth. Increased competition may pressure companies to reduce per-transaction fees and manage marketing costs.
- Shipping Market: Expected to face oversupply challenges, with vessel capacity growth outpacing cargo demand. Environmental regulations, such as the EU carbon emissions trading system, may further increase costs.
Lee Hee-won, director of KCCI’s Distribution and Logistics Promotion Institute, noted: “Structural global supply chain changes limit companies’ ability to respond independently. The government should enhance support through financial incentives and tax benefits for overseas logistics infrastructure development.”